Case Study: NASA achieves 8-hour, 85% accurate solar particle predictions with Wazoku

NASA - Customer Case Study

NASA, responsible for the U.S. civilian space program, faced a critical challenge: solar particle events can endanger astronauts and damage infrastructure, yet there was no reliable way to predict their onset, intensity, or duration. To find a data-led solution, NASA engaged the InnoCentive community—nearly 600 solvers across 50 countries—to develop a predictive algorithm despite limited available data.

The $20,000 prize went to Bruce Cragin, a retired RF engineer, whose ground-based data approach produced predictions up to 8 hours ahead with about 85% accuracy and a 3‑sigma confidence interval. The method has been tested and is being integrated into NASA programs, has opened new avenues for solar physics research, and demonstrated broad public engagement (95% of solvers were new to NASA projects).

NASA