Case Study: Avianca Holdings S.A. tracks early warning signals of credit risk with S&P Global Market Intelligence

Avianca Holdings S.A. - Tracking the early warning signals of credit risk

S&P Global Market Intelligence worked with Avianca Holdings S.A., a Colombia-based airline that faced escalating credit risk after a 2019 default and a severe liquidity crunch, which was worsened by the COVID-19 shock to the airline industry. The company needed a way to monitor its debt-side credit health and identify early warning signs before ratings moved.

Using S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Credit Analytics, including the Probability of Default (PD) Model Market Signal and PD Model Fundamentals, Avianca’s credit trajectory was tracked alongside ratings. The models flagged deterioration ahead of the official default, with the fundamentals score weakening to ccc in Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 and the market signal dropping from b+ to cc, showing that S&P Global Market Intelligence provided earlier visibility into rising credit pressure than traditional ratings alone.

Avianca Holdings S.A.