Case Study: Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative achieves 21.7% improvement in demand forecasting accuracy with SAS

Electric co-op forecasts demand, transmission needs

Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative (NOVEC), which serves 144,000 customers, needed accurate demand forecasts to buy power, plan transmission and substation upgrades, and operate its grid reliably and cost‑effectively despite not producing its own generation. The co-op required a forecasting solution that could handle many time series, incorporate weather and economic inputs, and be usable by analysts with varied experience.

NOVEC deployed SAS analytics (SAS Analytics Pro, SAS Enterprise Guide and SAS/ETS) to apply econometric and time‑series methods via point‑and‑click interfaces, automatically track forecasting workflows and incorporate daily weather and monthly economic data across 50+ series. The SAS model delivered a 21.7% improvement over the competing model and will be used going forward to evaluate load‑management programs and infrastructure needs.

Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative

Jamie Hall

Senior Operations Research Analyst