Case Study: NOAA Fisheries achieves better predictions of Atlantic salmon abundance and restoration outcomes with Palisade's @RISK

US National Marine Fisheries Service uses @RISK for Salmon Population Models

NOAA Fisheries (the National Marine Fisheries Service) sought to quantify how 15 FERC‑licensed hydroelectric dams in the Penobscot River watershed affect Atlantic salmon population dynamics and recovery. To build a stochastic, life‑cycle model that could incorporate variability in survival, passage efficiency, and indirect latent mortality, the team used Palisade’s @RISK add‑in for Excel to run and analyze simulation scenarios.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, researchers ran thousands of iterations across six dam‑management scenarios (including full removal, mainstem removals, and improved passage) to estimate changes in abundance and distribution. Palisade’s tool enabled rapid stochastic sampling and summary/iteration output; results showed that removing or improving passage at mainstem dams substantially increased adult abundance and upstream distribution (and the proportion of wild-origin adults), findings the NOAA team published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science.

NOAA Fisheries

Julie Nieland

Researcher