Case Study: US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA) achieves integrated schedule and cost‑risk analysis to avoid overruns with Palisade's @RISK

US Army Uses @RISK to Address Schedule and Cost Risk in Acquisitions

The US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA) conducts analyses to support equipping and sustaining weapons and materiel and needed a way to avoid schedule and cost overruns in acquisition programs. To address that challenge, AMSAA used Palisade’s @RISK software to move beyond siloed schedule and cost assessments and build a single integrated risk framework for acquisition decision-making.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, AMSAA developed an integrated Monte Carlo model that links schedule networks to cost consequences and maps outcomes into the DoD risk-reporting matrix to produce a single, color-coded risk rating. In one illustrative run the model showed an 82% likelihood of missing the milestone and yielded an expected risk score of 2.27 (yellow/medium), giving decision-makers quantifiable probabilities and consequence buckets for tradespace, what-if studies, and risk mitigation; AMSAA has applied submodels already and is moving toward broader adoption of the integrated approach.

AMSAA

John Nierwinski

Mathematician and Statistician