Case Study: University of Victoria achieves actionable insights into Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk across Canadian demographics with Palisade @RISK

University of Victoria - Customer Case Study

The University of Victoria (UVic) needed to estimate Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk (LECR) for Canadians from contaminants in food and beverages across multiple demographics, but faced challenges with disparate data sources, differently measured inputs and a 1.5 million‑row dataset that made deterministic analysis impractical. To perform a probabilistic, Monte Carlo–based assessment, UVic used Palisade’s @RISK risk‑analysis software to model contaminant concentrations and dietary intake patterns for five priority carcinogens.

Palisade’s @RISK enabled the team to combine heterogeneous data using PERT distributions and run 125 simulations of 50,000 iterations each, producing clear graphs and demographic comparisons that non‑statisticians could interpret. The results showed arsenic produced the largest urban–rural LECR differences, men had higher LECR than women for all five contaminants (notably males in British Columbia for arsenic), low/middle incomes had higher LECR for arsenic, benzene, lead and PERC, and high incomes showed higher LECR for PCBs — findings UVic says can guide local health officials in targeting follow‑up studies.

University of Victoria

Roslyn Cheasley

Master’s student, Department of Geography