Case Study: University of Pretoria achieves improved avian influenza risk prediction and surveillance with Palisade’s @RISK (DecisionTools Suite)

University of Pretoria - Customer Case Study

The University of Pretoria faced the challenge of stopping foodborne transmission of avian influenza (H5N1) in Africa by estimating contamination and human infection risks across production and preparation pathways. To build a low-cost, implementable surveillance and exposure model for Egypt and Nigeria, researchers from the University of Pretoria used Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite, including @RISK and TopRank, drawing on field data and epidemiological expertise.

Using Palisade’s tools, the team combined Monte Carlo simulation with social and outbreak data from more than 375 sites to identify critical exposure pathways and key risk drivers; Palisade’s TopRank helped prioritize factors and @RISK quantified outcome probabilities. The model revealed numerous opportunities for viral spread and estimated human risk higher than previously reported, producing actionable outputs that enable health planners and other African countries to better predict, monitor and intensify efforts to prevent animal-to-human transmission.

University of Pretoria

Folorunso Oludayo Fasina

Department of Production Animal Studies