Case Study: University of Arkansas shows higher, less risky rice profits with Palisade's @RISK

University of Arkansas Researchers Use @RISK to Analyze Rice Farmer Mass Tort Claims

The University of Arkansas faced a mass-tort challenge from rice farmers who alleged that RiceTec’s higher‑cost hybrid rice milled poorly and caused economic losses. To evaluate these claims, Dr. L. Lanier Nalley at the University of Arkansas used Palisade’s @RISK to compare the economic risk and return of RiceTec hybrids versus conventional, non‑hybrid rice.

Using Palisade’s @RISK Monte Carlo simulation to expand a limited experimental dataset, Nalley demonstrated that hybrids yield roughly 15–20% more and, even after accounting for higher seed costs ($150 vs. $22 per acre) and milling dockings up to $1.00 per 100 lbs, produce higher and more consistent profits across all levels of farmer risk aversion. Palisade’s @RISK generated clear, user‑friendly distributional outputs quickly, providing measurable evidence that hybrids were both more profitable and less risky for Arkansas producers.

University of Arkansas

L. Lanier Nalley

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness