Case Study: University of Adelaide achieves an "isorisques" predictive atlas for offshore metal pitting with Palisade @RISK

University of Adelaide - Customer Case Study

The University of Adelaide tackled the costly problem of metal pitting and corrosion at sea — a problem estimated at about $1.372 billion — where naturally occurring fluctuations in sea temperature and salinity can initiate pitting in offshore oil and gas equipment. To quantify this risk and predict where pitting may begin, researchers led by Dr. Kenneth Davey used Palisade’s @RISK software to build a probabilistic, spreadsheet‑based model of pitting initiation.

Using Palisade’s @RISK with Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo sampling, the team ran 5,000 simulations driven by sea temperature and chloride concentration distributions to compare pitting potential (EPIT) with open‑circuit potential (EOCP). They produced novel “isorisques” — contour maps of equal pitting probability across Bass Strait — and found, for example, 463 predicted pitting initiations out of 5,000 samples (a 9.26% risk) at 40.5°S, 148.5°E. The @RISK‑based method produced actionable, location‑specific risk maps to guide alloy selection and mitigation and was shortlisted for the ChemE Global Awards.

University of Adelaide

Kenneth Davey

School of Chemical Engineering