Case Study: UK Ministry of Defence achieves on-time, on-budget project delivery with Palisade’s @RISK

UK Ministry of Defence Completes Projects Within Time and Cost Budgets Set With Risk Analysis Forecasts

The UK Ministry of Defence faced persistent schedule delays and cost overruns on large, complex equipment procurement projects after discovering early-stage risk forecasts were often over‑optimistic. To strengthen its project approvals and Monte Carlo-based risk forecasts, the MoD used Palisade’s @RISK as its quantitative risk analysis tool alongside a Project Risk Maturity Model (RMM) to assess and improve the quality of inputs and modelling processes.

By combining the Project RMM with Palisade’s @RISK, the MoD raised modelling standards, required projects to reach RMM Level 3 or 4 before Main Gate (a rule introduced in 2004), and invested in training and assurance. The approach produced more realistic risk forecasts for projects totaling over £60 billion and—according to the National Audit Office’s Major Projects Report—delivered a marked improvement in the number of projects completed on or before their approved schedule and cost objectives.

UK Ministry of Defence

Martin Hopkinson

Consultant