Case Study: Tioga Energy achieves accurate solar PPA savings forecasts with Palisade's @RISK

Tioga Energy Uses @RISK From Palisade to Predict Financial Savings on Solar Energy Agreements in California

Tioga Energy needed a rigorous way to show customers how switching to a solar power purchase agreement (PPA) could hedge against volatile utility rates in California. To forecast long-term electricity price movements and quantify potential savings for 20-year PPAs, Tioga Energy used Palisade’s risk analysis software, @RISK, to turn historical rate data into actionable forecasts for prospective customers.

Using Palisade’s @RISK (Monte Carlo simulation and distribution fitting) on 35 years of California rate data, Tioga generated probability distributions of future rate rises — for example, a 25% likelihood of increases below 4.8% and a 25% likelihood above 8.7% — and scenario outcomes such as a 65% chance of saving under certain PPA terms and a 50% chance of saving 12% (20% chance of ~30%). Palisade’s model let Tioga Energy present clear, graphical probability ranges instead of single-point forecasts, helping customers make informed decisions, demonstrating measurable savings potential, and giving Tioga a competitive differentiator.

Tioga Energy

Kristian Hanelt

Vice President Project Finance