Case Study: Department of Energy and Climate Change achieves statistically rigorous, confident UK carbon budget forecasts with Palisade @RISK

The Department of Energy and Climate Change uses @RISK for UK carbon emission targets

The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) must produce annual projections of UK energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to assess whether the UK will meet legally binding carbon budgets under the Climate Change Act. Facing large uncertainty in inputs (GDP, fuel prices, vehicle efficiencies, winter degree days, etc.), the Department used Palisade’s @RISK to move from scenario-based analysis to rigorous probabilistic modelling.

Palisade’s @RISK was used to fit statistical distributions, account for correlations and stationarity, run roughly 1,000 Monte Carlo iterations per year, and generate Tornado sensitivity analyses to focus on the most influential inputs. The result was clearer, measurable probabilistic projections and greater confidence in DECC’s emissions estimates—showing year-by-year output distributions and explicit probabilities of meeting carbon budgets while saving time and resources by targeting key drivers.

Department of Energy and Climate Change

Roger Lampert

Department of Energy and Climate Change