Case Study: University of Bristol achieves quantified evacuation success and improved volcanic risk planning with Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite

The DecisionTools Suite Plays a Pivotal Part in Mitigating Risks Associated with Volcanic Eruptions in Guatemala

The University of Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK) faced the challenge of assessing human risk from eruptions of Volcán de Fuego in Guatemala, where sparse data and high uncertainty make conventional risk metrics of limited practical use. To model the likelihood of a successful evacuation and identify key drivers (warning times, communication delays, evacuation times), BRISK worked with INSIVUMEH and used Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite, specifically @RISK and PrecisionTree.

Using Palisade’s tools, researchers combined structured expert judgment with Monte Carlo simulation and logic-tree analysis to quantify probabilities of evacuation versus non-evacuation and their uncertainties. The Palisade-based models produced measurable outputs and sensitivity insights—highlighting which timings most affect outcomes—enabling INSIVUMEH and local planners to target communications and evacuation planning more effectively and to prioritize mitigation actions.

University of Bristol

Jonathan Stone

Researcher