Case Study: Solvére achieves robust PPP payment-risk analysis and reliable revenue forecasting with Palisade's @RISK

Solvĕre Uses @RISK to Evaluate Payment Mechanisms in Infrastructure PPP Projects

Solvĕre is a technical consultancy specializing in transport and other infrastructure projects delivered under Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models. Facing the complex uncertainty of availability-based payment mechanisms—where periodic payments are adjusted for performance penalties and credits—they needed a way to quantify the probability and financial impact of non-compliance with KPIs. To do this, Solvĕre used Palisade’s @RISK software to model risks and forecast payment outcomes.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, Solvĕre built project-specific Monte Carlo simulation models that convert operational variables and contract rules into probabilistic “performance probability” functions and payment-deduction profiles (e.g., P90 revenue forecasts). The solution gives governments, contractors and lenders quantitative, scenario-based estimates of expected revenues, penalty risk and CAPEX/OPEX trade-offs, enabling better payment-mechanism design, revenue forecasting and due diligence—and clearer risk allocation across the life of the contract.

Solvĕre

Laura Cózar

Director