Case Study: Interdisciplinary Solutions achieves robust pandemic preparedness for the NYC Department of Health with Palisade's @RISK and RISKOptimizer

RISK Used by Interdisciplinary Solutions to Help the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene Prepare for Future Pandemics

Interdisciplinary Solutions supported the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene in a year‑long project to plan for a severe influenza pandemic. Faced with high uncertainty about disease spread, hospital demand and nurse availability, Interdisciplinary Solutions used Palisade’s @RISK and RISKOptimizer integrated into its Panalysis model to generate robust “what‑if” scenarios and quantify a wide range of possible outcomes.

Using Palisade’s @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation and RISKOptimizer for simulation‑optimization, the team ran tens of thousands (up to half a million) simulations to estimate staffing and resource needs. Results showed a 26.5% chance of nurse shortages during peak weeks, a 10% chance of shortages of 46+ nurses, 5% for 67+, 1% for 102+, and a maximum modeled shortage of 149 nurses; RISKOptimizer also defined disease‑profile ranges to project ICU/non‑ICU beds, ventilators and ED capacity. The Palisade‑driven analysis gave NYC DOHMH quantitative scenario planning that is under CDC review and can be extended to additional resources and geographic analyses.

Interdisciplinary Solutions

Mark Abramovich

Principal