Case Study: AECOM achieves optimized climate-adaptation decisions and timing for Narrabeen Lagoon with Palisade @RISK

RISK Aids AECOM's Work for Australian Government in Climate Change Adaptation Optimization

AECOM was engaged by the Australian Department of Climate Change to assess climate-change-driven flooding risk at Narrabeen Lagoon and to identify which adaptation measures to implement and when. Facing a large number of permutations (90-year horizons, 10 climate models and multiple flood scenarios), AECOM used Palisade’s @RISK to model the uncertainty and economic trade-offs in a rigorous way.

Using Palisade @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation and optimization across six adaptation options, AECOM produced realistic probability distributions of future costs and benefits and optimized Net Present Value to identify the best timing and mix of measures. The analysis quantified social benefits (willingness to pay), showed immediate gains from low-cost planning controls while recommending deferral of expensive levees, and delivered a portfolio and timing strategy that maximized NPV and reduced the opportunity cost of premature investment.

AECOM

Robert Kinghorn

Economists