Case Study: RD&I Consulting quantifies payback risk for the Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link with Palisade @RISK

RD&I Consulting - Customer Case Study

RD&I Consulting used Palisade’s @RISK to evaluate the financial uncertainty of the Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link, an 18 km immersed tunnel project connecting Denmark and Germany. Facing an official payback projection of less than 40 years but no comprehensive uncertainty analysis, RD&I Consulting set out to model whether that payback target was realistic using rigorous risk analysis.

Using Palisade’s @RISK Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis on publicly available inputs (construction costs, EU subsidies, and traffic forecasts), RD&I Consulting produced a full uncertainty profile and traffic-light interpretation of outcomes. The Palisade-powered model found a 92.5% probability that the payback period will exceed 40 years, identifying the project as high risk versus official estimates; these results were presented to Femern A/S and the Commission of Transport and may affect future project decisions.

RD&I Consulting

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen

Director