Case Study: MRAG Asia Pacific achieves probabilistic quantification and valuation of illegal Pacific tuna fishing with Palisade’s @RISK

Quantifying Illegal Fishing in the Pacific Islands with Palisade's @RISK

MRAG Asia Pacific (MRAG AP), an independent fisheries and aquatic resource consultancy, was tasked with estimating the volume, species composition and economic value of illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) tuna fishing across Pacific Island fisheries. The problem was highly uncertain and data-poor, so MRAG used Palisade’s @RISK to quantify IUU activity and produce robust probabilistic estimates to inform Monitoring, Control and Surveillance (MCS) decisions.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, MRAG built bottom-up Monte Carlo models with distribution fitting (working with up to 570,000 data points in parts of the model) to generate probabilistic ranges for IUU catch, species mix and value; the results fed the February 2016 report and produced clear, measurable outputs. Palisade’s software enabled MRAG to account explicitly for uncertainty, deliver a repeatable modelling framework, and identify priority MCS interventions (for example, improved observer coverage and electronic monitoring) to help minimize the future financial impact of IUU on Pacific Island economies.

MRAG Asia Pacific

Duncan Souter

Chief Executive Officer