Case Study: Águas do Douro e Paiva achieves estimated €6M NPV from energy-cost reductions with Palisade @RISK

Portuguese Water Utility Company Uses @RISK to Estimate Net Present Value of Energy Costs Reduction Project

Aguas Do Douro E Paiva, a Portuguese water utility serving the Oporto region, faced rising and highly variable energy costs that heavily influence its water tariffs and regulatory approvals. To assess whether building a new high-voltage sub-station in Jovim and refurbishing pumping stations would be financially justified, the company turned to Palisade and used its Monte Carlo simulation tool, @RISK, to model future energy usage, tariff scenarios and project cash flows.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, Aguas Do Douro E Paiva developed a discounted cash‑flow model with PERT and triangular distributions and ran simulations to test combinations of power types, usage patterns and tariff assumptions. The analysis produced an estimated project NPV of about €6 million (90% probability between €4.6M and €7.7M), demonstrated likely reductions in energy costs and water tariffs, and gave management the confidence to proceed with sub‑station design and pumping‑station upgrades — decisions informed directly by Palisade’s results.

Aguas Do Douro E Paiva

Jaime Gabriel Silva

Director of Engineering