Case Study: Petrobras reduces E&P risk-analysis from thousands of hours to a single day with Palisade's @RISK

Petrobras - Customer Case Study

Petrobras, the Brazilian oil and gas producer, needed to evaluate economic risks across complex Exploration & Production (E&P) investments—tracking metrics like expected NPV, NPV volatility, probability of loss and 95% VaR—yet its in‑house Progride system could not expose simulation data or efficiently analyze integrated, multi‑concession projects. To overcome these limitations, Petrobras adopted Palisade’s @RISK alongside Progride in Excel to support probabilistic modeling for prices, CAPEX/OPEX, production and start‑date uncertainties.

Using Palisade’s @RISK integrated with Progride (via Excel functions and a run macro), Petrobras generates probabilistic scenarios for shared and independent risks, runs separate concession analyses, and aggregates results for the integrated project. The Palisade solution enabled partner and multi‑concession modeling, provided access to simulation outputs, and cut projection run times from thousands of hours to a single day—delivering substantial time savings and significant cost reductions while producing robust risk metrics for decision making.

Petrobras