Case Study: PCM Consulting achieves risk-aware financial insights for biogas plants with Palisade's @RISK

PCM Consulting - Customer Case Study

PCM Consulting, a South African project, contract and engineering management firm working in the oil/gas/energy sector, needed to assess the financial viability of biogas plants while explicitly accounting for parametric uncertainty. To address this challenge they used Palisade’s @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software to move beyond deterministic metrics like NPV and IRR and quantify the probability and drivers of financial success across different plant scenarios.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, PCM modeled eight plant scenarios (0.5–6 MWe) and two biogas usage pathways (CHP and biomethane), assigning probability distributions to discount rate, investment cost, production rate and revenue. The simulations showed CHP plants had higher NPVs at ≤4 MWe while biomethane became more profitable at ≥5 MWe, with 6 MWe offering the greatest potential NPV but still falling short of a typical 95% probability-of-success threshold; larger plants increased median NPV and success probability (economies of scale) but also uncertainty. Palisade’s @RISK clarified key risk drivers—investment cost for smaller plants and revenue parameters for larger ones—and produced actionable recommendations to reduce cost risks or target premium buyers.

PCM Consulting

Brigette Nagel

PCM Consulting