Case Study: Enex achieves optimal equipment procurement timing and plant sizing with Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite

Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite Helps Enex Determine Optimum Time to Procure Multi-million Euro Geothermal Power Plant Equipment

Enex, a Reykjavík-based renewable energy developer, faced the challenge of deciding when to procure multi-million euro equipment for a new geothermal power plant amid large geological uncertainty and long lead times. To determine the optimal plant size and the timing of orders—before, between, or after drilling—Enex used Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite, specifically PrecisionTree® for decision modeling and @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation.

Using PrecisionTree to map procurement scenarios and @RISK to simulate production indices, temperatures and financial outcomes, Palisade’s tools showed that pre-ordering critical components before the first well drilling gave higher expected profitability and allowed earlier plant start-up. The analysis identified an optimal plant size of 14.5 MW with an 89% probability of success and found extra investment costs would need to rise roughly 400% to reverse the decision, demonstrating a clear, measurable impact on Enex’s procurement strategy.

Enex

Viktor Thorisson

Analyst