Case Study: Novelis achieves rigorous, risk‑adjusted R&D project valuation with Palisade (@RISK & PrecisionTree)

Novelis Uses @RISK, PrecisionTree for High Risk R&D Project Valuation

Novelis, the world’s largest aluminum rolling and recycling company, faced a gap in how it evaluated high‑risk R&D projects: assessments were largely qualitative and overly reliant on commercial input. To bring rigor and quantitative risk analysis to this process, Dave MacAdam at Novelis deployed Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite—notably @RISK and PrecisionTree—to capture assumptions from scientific and commercial teams and to model project-stage uncertainty.

Using Palisade’s tools, Novelis mapped decision points, built probabilistic models (including an adaptive discount rate), and used PrecisionTree and @RISK to produce risk‑adjusted NPVs and tornado charts that clearly ranked key risks. The approach revealed that a project’s success often hinged on a few critical tests, enabled targeted “risk retirement,” improved stakeholder communication, and has begun to drive better portfolio prioritization and go/no‑go decisions across Novelis.

Novelis

Dave MacAdam

Senior Manager of Innovation Strategy