Case Study: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company achieves more accurate schedule and milestone forecasting for Mars mission planning with Palisade @RISK

NASA and Lockheed Martin use @RISK for Planning First Manned Mission to Mars

Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, working with NASA on the multi‑stage Orion program and the first manned mission to Mars, faced complex schedule and milestone risk across tasks from EFT‑1 through crewed missions. To quantify and manage those risks, the team used Palisade’s @RISK product for schedule risk assessment, turning historical data and expert judgments into formal probability and consequence scores to evaluate where delays or cost impacts could occur.

Using Palisade’s @RISK Monte Carlo simulations on their Integrated Master Schedule, Lockheed Martin assigned risk factors (1–8) and min/most‑likely/max task durations, ran monthly assessments, and generated S‑curves and risk‑factor charts to pinpoint schedule drivers and validate the model. Palisade’s software improved model accuracy over successive iterations, provided forensic insight into delay causes, and increased confidence in meeting contractual dates by highlighting high‑risk tasks and enabling targeted mitigation.

Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company

Michael Watson

Integrated Program Planning