Case Study: Linksbridge SPC achieves greater health impact and value-for-money in delivering life-saving medicines with Palisade DecisionTools Suite

Making Medicine Count: Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimization Bolsters Efficacy of Humanitarian Programs

Linksbridge SPC, a Seattle-based consulting firm working in international development, faced the challenge of identifying which interventions would deliver the greatest health impact and value for money when introducing life‑saving medicines in low‑resource countries amid high demand and supply uncertainty. To tackle this, Linksbridge SPC used Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite—specifically @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and PrecisionTree—to build probabilistic demand and supply forecasts and evaluate market and investment strategies.

Using Palisade’s tools, Linksbridge SPC ran Monte Carlo simulations with @RISK to quantify demand and manufacturing uncertainty, applied RISKOptimizer to model procurement scenarios that optimize weighted average price and total procurement costs, and used PrecisionTree to compare investment options by NPV and risk profile—selecting a preferred supplier with a positive NPV. The Palisade solution produced clearer market strategies, revealed cost‑saving procurement allocations, and allowed clients to make more cost‑effective, higher‑impact public health decisions.

Linksbridge SPC

Khatuna Giorgadze

Senior Associate