Palisade
185 Case Studies
A Palisade Case Study
Hospital Clinic Barcelona, led by Dr. Arturo Pereira, investigated how improved blood-donor screening for hepatitis B would affect health outcomes and medical costs across the EU. To handle the complex uncertainty and variation in the model, the team used Palisade’s @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software to streamline modeling and calculation, freeing time for result interpretation.
Palisade’s @RISK let the researchers represent uncertain variables with probability distributions (using triangular distributions where data were sparse and built‑in distribution fitting where data existed) and produce probabilistic outcomes. The model estimated 0.97% mortality among EU patients with post‑transfusion HBV, a mean loss of 0.178 life‑years per patient, and about $4,700 lifetime treatment cost per patient. Cost per life‑year gained was $6,519,000 for single‑donation HBV NAT, $888,000 for enhanced‑sensitivity HBsAg, and $47,000,000 if NAT followed improved HBsAg screening—showing, as highlighted by Palisade’s analysis, that single‑donation NAT yields only a small health benefit at very high cost while enhanced HBsAg could be more cost‑acceptable.
Arturo Pereira
Researcher