Case Study: HealthCare Appraisers Inc achieves defensible Fair Market Value for an ophthalmic surgery center with Palisade's @RISK

HealthCare Appraisers Inc. uses @RISK to Model Multiple Path-Dependent Scenarios for an Ophthalmic Center

HealthCare Appraisers Inc., a national healthcare valuation firm, was engaged to value an ophthalmic ambulatory surgery center facing multiple path-dependent expansion and contraction options so the owner could syndicate physician ownership interests while meeting Stark Law and anti‑kickback Fair Market Value standards. The challenge was to model seven possible, interdependent scenarios (e.g., relocation, service expansions, physician departures) with management‑provided probabilities and capture the full range of outcomes rather than relying on static point estimates. HealthCare Appraisers Inc. used Palisade’s @RISK to address this complexity.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, HAI built Monte Carlo simulations that controlled scenario occurrence with Bernoulli “dummy” variables, assigned Normal/Lognormal/Triangle/PERT distributions to inputs, applied a correlation matrix, and tracked outputs such as Revenue, Salaries & Wages, and Occupancy. The simulations (for a center with roughly $3.5–$4.0M revenue and 3,500–4,000 annual cases) produced histograms and Tornado graphs that revealed value drivers, produced report‑ready graphics, and delivered a more defensible, quantitative range of valuation outcomes to support syndication and regulatory compliance.

HealthCare Appraisers Inc

Jarrod Barraza

Senior Associate