Case Study: Transnet achieves defendable, portfolio-level risk analysis for large-scale infrastructure expansion with Palisade (@RISK)

French Rail PPP Projects Rely on Traffic and Revenue Risk Analysis using @RISK

Transnet, the South African government‑owned custodian of freight rail, ports and pipelines, needed to assess and manage risks across a vast and varied capital program — roughly $28.9 billion of planned investment, about 130 projects ranging from small replacements to multi‑year billion‑rand port works — where schedule, cost and multiple stakeholders could threaten delivery. To quantify those threats, Transnet used Palisade’s @RISK software.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, Transnet consolidated 86 risk registers into a single probabilistic model that captured 1,064 individual risks across 86 projects and 16 project categories, linked to a three‑level risk breakdown structure. The Palisade solution delivered science‑based contingency estimates and risk rankings, revealed root causes and the portfolio impact of start‑delay risks, and provided defendable numbers to prioritize responses and inform capital planning.

Transnet

Francois Joubert

National Program Risk Manager