Case Study: Federal Highway Administration achieves risk-informed, cost-effective pavement life-cycle decisions with Palisade's @RISK

Federal Highway Adminstration - Customer Case Study

Federal Highway Adminstration faced the challenge that traditional life‑cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for pavement design treated inputs as fixed values and produced a single deterministic outcome, obscuring uncertainty and risk. To demonstrate Monte Carlo and probabilistic approaches, FHWA developed a model, partnered with multiple state highway agencies and industry groups, and used Palisade’s @RISK Excel add‑in to introduce simulation capability and train practitioners.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, FHWA provided risk‑analysis training and ran case studies with 10 state highway agencies plus the American Concrete Pavement Association and the National Asphalt Pavement Association, replacing single‑value spreadsheets with Monte Carlo simulation. The work showed that, with limited training, agency personnel could quantify what can happen, how likely it is, and the consequences—enabling selection of more cost‑effective, longer‑term pavement decisions and demonstrable improvements in decision quality across participants.

Federal Highway Adminstration