Case Study: Železničná spoločnosť Slovensko secures EU and Slovak government approval for new rolling-stock investment with Palisade’s @RISK

European Investment Bank Recommends @RISK to Determine Feasibility of Railway Capital Investments

Železničná spoločnosť Slovensko, the national passenger rail operator, faced ageing rolling stock and declining ridership that threatened the viability of investing in new double‑deck electric and diesel units. The European Investment Bank recommended Palisade’s @RISK software to model 30‑year passenger, revenue and cost scenarios and provide the risk‑based decision support required by the EU, the Slovakian Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance before committing co‑financing.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, consultants built probabilistic models of fares, subsidies, passenger trends, timetabling effects, operating costs and socio‑economic impacts (reduced accidents and pollution), running 4,000 simulation iterations to produce FNPV distributions. The analysis showed operations would not be profitable without subsidies but that the broader socio‑economic benefits justified the investment; based on the Palisade-enabled results the EU and Slovakian Ministry approved the project, some new carriages entered service and all 32 new units were scheduled to be in use by 2013.

Železničná spoločnosť Slovensko

Jozef Dančo

Consultant