Case Study: ENGCOMP defines robust contingency-backed budget and secures DND Treasury Board approval with Palisade’s @RISK

Engcomp Uses Palisade’s @RISK Software To Define Budget for Canadian Department of National Defence’s Ongoing Fleet Maintenance Facility Project

ENGCOMP, a Saskatchewan-based structural, mechanical and cost engineering consulting firm, was engaged to define the budget and schedule for Phase 4 of the Fleet Maintenance Facility (FMF) Cape Breton project at CFB Esquimalt. Facing high uncertainty from market volatility, potential site contamination under legacy industrial buildings, and the need to defend a capital appropriation to the Federal Treasury Board, ENGCOMP used Palisade’s @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software to quantify cost and schedule uncertainty and determine appropriate contingency and risk reserves.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, ENGCOMP ran separate Monte Carlo analyses for contingency and for project risk, estimating contingency from work-package variability and quantifying risk reserve and schedule contingency while identifying decontamination and market volatility as the largest cost drivers. The analysis produced a probabilistic total project cost range of about CAD 139.2M–177.8M, an 85% confidence completion date of January 2014, and provided the evidence DND needed to secure Treasury Board approval; the FMF CB project is now authorized and in progress, and DND is considering applying the @RISK approach to future projects.

Engcomp

Jason Mewis

President