Case Study: ECN assesses offshore wind economic viability and quantifies O&M cost uncertainty with Palisade's @RISK

ECN uses @RISK to determine the economic feasibility of offshore wind farms

ECN, an independent Dutch energy research organisation, needed to determine whether offshore wind farms were financially viable given severe weather, long repair lead times and very high access costs (for example crane ships can cost up to €150,000 and may take months to arrive). To quantify those risks, ECN used Palisade’s risk-analysis software @RISK alongside its ECN O&M Tool to model failure frequencies, downtime and the wide range of cost uncertainties for offshore turbines.

Using Palisade @RISK, ECN ran probabilistic “what‑if” analyses (handling 15–40 turbine components) to produce CDFs and Tornado diagrams that identify key drivers of cost uncertainty. The results enabled developers to negotiate fixed-fee vessel contracts and better warranty terms, showed labor costs had less impact than expected, clarified ROI, and reduced financing risk by making uncertainty measurable and manageable.

ECN

Luc Rademakers

Senior Manager