Case Study: DePaul University achieves a prize-winning sports wagering model and 1,400% bankroll growth with Palisade DecisionTools Suite

DecisionTools Suite Utilized in Award-Winning Sports Analytics Research

DePaul University adjunct professor Clayton Graham set out to model baseball game probabilities and determine profitable, risk‑aware wagering strategies for his prize‑winning MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference paper, "Diamonds on the Line: Profits through Investment Gaming." To handle the complex batter–pitcher matchups, runs‑per‑out calculations, park factors and bet‑sizing analyses, Graham used Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite.

Using Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite to build a predictive production function, incorporate Money Line odds, and create a risk/return investment rule, Graham limited wagers to 23% of MLB games and identified bets that won 68% of the time. The method produced a 35% return on daily capital at risk and grew a $1,000 starting bankroll by more than 1,400% (a $14,252 profit) over the 2014 season, results Graham attributed to the speed, accuracy and support provided by Palisade.

DePaul University

Clayton Graham

Adjunct Professor