Case Study: Cranfield University achieves better long-term ROI through product reliability analysis with Palisade’s @RISK

Cranfield University uses @RISK to Demonstrate Benefits of Investing in Product Reliability

Cranfield University, a postgraduate research institution working in oil, gas and engineering, faced the challenge of quantifying the likelihood and lifecycle cost of sub-sea equipment failures to justify upstream investment in product reliability. To give business managers clear, evidence-based guidance, Cranfield used Palisade’s @RISK Excel add-in to model the uncertain performance and cost consequences of equipment operating more than 2,000 m below sea level.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, Cranfield combined RAM and lifecycle-cost inputs, ran thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, and produced distributions for time-to-failure, NPV, lifecycle cost and breakeven points, plus sensitivity analyses to pinpoint which components deliver the best ROI when strengthened. The work gave managers concrete, measurable evidence — including the scale of intervention costs (support vessels > $200,000/day, interventions potentially > $10M) — that investing in reliability early in design improves long‑term returns.

Cranfield University

Karl Woods

Engineering Doctorate Research Engineer