Case Study: Arc of Yates achieves accurate budget shortfall forecasting with Palisade’s @RISK

Community Services Provider Arc of Yates utilizes Palisade’s @RISK to Predict Potential Budget Shortfalls

Arc of Yates, a non‑profit serving people with developmental disabilities in Yates County, NY, faced growing uncertainty from state and local funding shortfalls, Medicaid rate and contract reductions, audits and inflation. To better forecast its annual budget and plan strategically, Arc of Yates turned to Palisade and its @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software for budget forecasting.

Using Palisade’s @RISK, Arc of Yates modeled ranges and probabilities for key funding variables, producing clear probability distributions (for example, a 90% chance of a 2011 surplus between $195,430 and $352,827 and projected deficits in 2012–2013). The outputs enabled the organization to quantify shortfall risk, improve board communication, reprioritize capital projects, and create contingency plans to pursue replacement revenue and cost reductions—reducing multiple uncertainties to a single, actionable forecast for leadership.

Arc of Yates

Stephen Johnson

Chief Financial Officer