Case Study: Cambridge Judge Business School informs climate policy by quantifying uncertainty with Palisade @RISK

Cambridge University's Judge Business School uses @RISK from Palisade to Advise on Climate Change

Cambridge Judge Business School (University of Cambridge) supported the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and faced the challenge of modelling deep uncertainty around climate sensitivity, economic impacts and timing of climate catastrophes. To inform policymakers and weigh options for reducing CO2 emissions, the school selected Palisade’s @RISK (Industrial version) Excel add‑in to build the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model and quantify the range and likelihood of future scenarios.

Using Palisade’s @RISK and its RISKOptimizer, the team ran Monte Carlo simulations (with Latin Hypercube sampling), tornado charts and tailored distributions to estimate the social cost of carbon and optimal emissions reductions. The modelling directly informed the Stern Review’s recommendation — investing about 1% of global GDP per year to avoid worst effects — and highlighted the risk of up to a 20% GDP loss if no action is taken, enabling clearer, measurable policy guidance and ongoing use of the PAGE2002 @RISK tool by the Judge Business School.

Cambridge Judge Business School

Chris Hope

Reader In Policy Modelling