Case Study: BC Hydro achieves confident, data-driven DSM savings forecasts with Palisade’s @RISK

BC Hydro uses @RISK to calculate uncertainty of electricity-conservation projects

BC Hydro, the largest electricity supplier in British Columbia (about 1.7 million customers and roughly $5 billion in annual revenue), faced the challenge of determining whether ambitious Demand Side Management (DSM) conservation targets were achievable given substantial uncertainty across many individual projects and long-term planning. To quantify that uncertainty and support its Long Term Acquisition Plan, BC Hydro used Palisade’s risk analysis software @RISK for project-level and aggregate savings forecasting.

Palisade implemented @RISK Monte Carlo models to analyze roughly 60 DSM projects, generate probability distributions around aggregate savings, model correlations between participation and savings-per-participant, and evaluate two-tier pricing scenarios. The analysis showed DSM could meet about 75% of incremental demand over 20 years, provided transparent visualizations for experts and regulators, and gave BC Hydro the confidence to set aggressive conservation goals while quantifying risk and cost-effectiveness versus supply-side options.

BC Hydro

Basil Stumborg

Decision Analysis Expert-Finance