Case Study: Aspinall & Associates achieves better volcano risk and evacuation planning with Palisade (@RISK & PrecisionTree)

Aspinall & Associates - Customer Case Study

Aspinall & Associates, led by physicist Willy Aspinall, faced the challenge of preparing disaster plans for the Soufriere Hills volcano on the small island of Montserrat, where fast-changing, highly uncertain volcanic behavior threatens local villages. To model complex scenarios and capture expert uncertainty for evacuation and planning decisions, Aspinall & Associates relies on Palisade software—specifically @RISK and PrecisionTree.

Palisade’s @RISK and PrecisionTree were used to simulate risks to individual villages under multiple eruptive scenarios and to quantify variability in expert opinion, allowing full probability distributions at any decision node and event trees of up to about 200 branches. The result is rigorous, repeatable risk assessments that help Montserrat officials translate imperfect expert judgment into actionable short-term hazard responses and long-term planning.

Aspinall & Associates

Willy Aspinal

Physicist