Case Study: University of Washington achieves projection of near‑doubling of California area burned by 2054 with Meteomatics

Climate Change May Double Area Annually Burned by Wildfires in California Within the Next 30 Years

The University of Washington needed to quantify how climate change is altering wildfire risk in California—assessing historical trends, projecting future fire‑risk days/hours, and estimating potential area burned. To do this they used Meteomatics’ Climate Change Services and climate datasets (temperature, precipitation and fire‑risk metrics) to frame the problem and translate meteorological data into actionable analysis.

Meteomatics delivered hyperlocal temperature and precipitation records, defined and calculated Fire Risk hours (21‑day precip <50 mm and temp >28°C), and ran CMIP6 SSP2/SSP5 projections to link high fire‑risk hours to area burned. Meteomatics’ analysis showed rising temperatures, declining precipitation since 1991, increasing fire‑risk days/hours, and projected that California’s annual area burned could almost double by 2054—giving the University of Washington measurable projections to guide research and planning.

University of Washington

Susan Prichard

School of Environmental and Forest Sciences