Case Study: AC Immune improves drug development valuation and risk analysis with Lumivero’s @RISK and PrecisionTree

Using @RISK and PrecisionTree to Shape the Future of Drug Development in Neurodegenerative Diseases

AC Immune SA, a biopharmaceutical company focused on neurodegenerative diseases, needed to enhance its valuation process for drug development candidates and enterprise value. To manage the numerous uncertainties in development timelines and potential commercialization, they partnered with Lumivero to utilize its @RISK and PrecisionTree software for more sophisticated risk analysis and decision-making.

By implementing Lumivero's @RISK, the company calculated risk-adjusted net present values (rNPVs) using Monte Carlo simulations, while PrecisionTree enabled them to model key developmental decisions. This solution provided a clear view of prediction intervals and the impact of various assumptions, allowing for better resource allocation and stakeholder communication. As a result, AC Immune gained a significant competitive edge through data-driven, deterministic analysis, enhancing its internal valuation capabilities and enabling it to ask more robust "what if" questions than its peers.

AC Immune

Julian Snow

AVP of Financial Reporting