Case Study: University of Bristol improves volcanic evacuation risk modeling with Lumivero’s DecisionTools Suite

The DecisionTools Suite Plays a Pivotal Part in Mitigating Risks Associated with Volcanic Eruptions in Guatemala

The University of Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre faced the challenge of assessing volcanic risk for populations near Guatemala's Volcán de Fuego. Conventional risk models were not useful for planning evacuations, and local authorities lacked the resources to perform formal assessments. They turned to Lumivero's DecisionTools Suite, specifically the @RISK and PrecisionTree applications, to quantify the threat and model the likelihood of a successful evacuation.

The Lumivero solution used a novel approach, employing structured expert judgment to model evacuation variables within a PrecisionTree logic tree. The @RISK software then integrated these probabilities into a quantitative risk model. The analysis clearly identified the most sensitive parts of the evacuation system, such as warning or communication times, which informed better planning and more effective mitigation strategies for the local population and authorities.

University of Bristol

Jonathan Stone

Researcher