Case Study: Novelis Improves R&D Risk Valuation with Lumivero's DecisionTools Suite

Novelis Uses @RISK, PrecisionTree for High Risk R&D Project Valuation

Novelis, the world's largest aluminum rolling and recycling company, faced a challenge in its R&D department, which lacked a structured, quantitative system for evaluating the risk of new projects. Their process was overly reliant on commercial input and did not effectively integrate scientific expertise. To address this, they worked with Lumivero and implemented its DecisionTools Suite, including @RISK and PrecisionTree, to bring rigor to their project valuation.

The solution involved creating models that incorporated assumptions from both commercial and scientific teams, using an adaptive discount rate to calculate a risk-adjusted net present value (NPV). Lumivero's tools allowed Novelis to visualize compounding risks and success rates at each project stage, identify the most impactful risks, and challenge assumptions. This new process provided greater clarity for decision-makers, improved portfolio management, and became an essential part of the company's future "go/no-go" decisions for R&D projects.

Novelis

Dave MacAdam

Senior Manager of Innovation Strategy