Case Study: Gemeente Hoorn mitigates financial risk in housing development with Lumivero’s @RISK

Mitigating Risks of Urban Planning with @RISK

Gemeente Hoorn, the municipal government for the city of Hoorn in the Netherlands, faced significant financial risks in its long-term urban development projects. The complexities of transforming agricultural land into new residential districts, with investments often around €200 million, required a robust method to forecast outcomes and determine necessary financial buffers. To address this challenge, they turned to the vendor Lumivero and implemented its @RISK software.

Using Lumivero's @RISK, the financial planning team was able to model numerous macroeconomic scenarios through Monte Carlo simulations. The solution processed complex inputs like interest rates, inflation, time, and price fluctuations to quantify potential financial outcomes. This provided Gemeente Hoorn with clear insights into risk, enabling them to make data-driven decisions on whether to accelerate or delay projects. The implementation of Lumivero's tool became core to their annual financial recalculation process, effectively mitigating risk for their multi-million euro investments.

Gemeente Hoorn

Simon Metselaar

Financial Urban Planner