Case Study: BC Hydro improves energy conservation forecasting with Lumivero's @RISK

BC Hydro uses @RISK to calculate uncertainty of electricity-conservation projects

BC Hydro, a major electricity supplier in British Columbia, faced the challenge of forecasting the uncertain outcomes of its ambitious Demand Side Management (DSM) program. This program aimed to meet 75% of future energy needs through conservation, but its success hinged on dozens of individual projects with highly uncertain savings. To address this, BC Hydro expanded its use of Lumivero's @RISK software beyond load forecasting to model the risks and correlations within its DSM initiatives.

Lumivero's @RISK solution used Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainties by gathering and refining input from industry experts, helping to overcome their overconfidence bias. The software visually modeled correlations between projects, revealing that success depended on creating a broader "conservation culture." This process provided BC Hydro with a robust, probability-based forecast, giving them the confidence to set and pursue their aggressive conservation target while transparently communicating the risks and outcomes to regulators and stakeholders.

BC Hydro

Basil Stumborg

Decision Analysis Expert – Finance