Case Study: US Department of Energy improves R&D funding decisions with Lumina Decision Systems' Analytica and SEDS

US Department of Energy uses Lumina Decision Systems to model 36 R&D technologies from 2005 to 2050

The US Department of Energy (DOE) faced the challenge of deciding which high-risk energy research and development (R&D) projects to fund in order to maximize the potential for reducing energy costs and greenhouse gas emissions. To assist in this complex and uncertain decision-making process, the DOE engaged Lumina Decision Systems and utilized their Analytica software platform to help build a sophisticated evaluation tool.

Lumina Decision Systems, in collaboration with a multi-laboratory consortium led by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), developed the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) using Analytica. This model used Monte Carlo simulation to project the uncertain outcomes of R&D portfolios, including their effects on technology adoption, energy costs, and GHG emissions. The solution incorporated expert elicitation from 167 scientists to quantify uncertainties and provided the DOE with a powerful tool, including efficient frontier analysis, to visually compare and select the most promising R&D projects for funding.

US Department of Energy (doe)