Case Study: KTL (National Public Health Institute of Finland) achieves a comprehensive risk–benefit analysis showing farmed salmon’s net health benefits with Lumina Decision Systems' Analytica

KTL - Customer Case Study

KTL, the National Public Health Institute of Finland, faced a public-health challenge after a 2004 study warned that chemical contaminants in farmed salmon could increase cancer risk and recommended severely limiting consumption. Concerned that this advice ignored salmon’s health benefits (notably omega‑3s) and could worsen net health outcomes if people ate more beef instead, KTL used the Analytica modeling software (from Lumina Decision Systems) to perform a comprehensive risk–benefit assessment.

Using Analytica from Lumina Decision Systems, KTL built a probabilistic risk‑benefit model that quantified uncertainties and compared pollutant risks with salmon’s health benefits. The model estimated 210 excess cancer deaths/year in Western Europe from pollutants (CI90 110–340), found that the Hites et al. consumption limits would prevent about 40 deaths/year (CI90 2–110) but likely increase deaths by about 5,200/year (CI90 34–19,000) by shifting consumption to beef, and showed that reducing pollutants in feed could save ≈360 lives/year (CI90 −3,200 to +4,100); KTL published the results in Science and made the Analytica model publicly available.

KTL

Jouni Tuomisto

KTL