Case Study: Certus Consulting, Inc. achieves cost-effective earthquake risk modeling and optimized insurance decisions with Lumina Decision Systems' Analytica

Certus Consulting, Inc. - Customer Case Study

Certus Consulting, Inc., a leader in seismic evaluation and structural engineering, was asked to help a San Francisco Bay Area county that spends over $1 million annually on earthquake insurance but had insured 50 of its 500+ buildings without a formal risk study. The county needed a customized, building-by-building risk tool to quantify monetary exposure (including contents and business interruption), compare relative risks across properties, and optimize insurance deductibles, limits, and portfolio selection. To meet this challenge Certus turned to Lumina Decision Systems’ Analytica for its simulation and modeling capabilities.

Using Analytica from Lumina Decision Systems, Certus built a scalable, site-specific Monte Carlo model (>100,000 iterations) that combined building size, structural type, deficiencies, soil data, hazard scenarios, repair costs and business-interruption exposure. The model produced expected losses across confidence levels, ranked buildings by risk contribution, and compared actual broker premiums to refined risk-adjusted premiums—identifying buildings that were over- or under-insured. With results from Analytica, the county can optimize its insurance portfolio and budget, target premium dollars more effectively, and integrate seismic exposure into a comprehensive enterprise risk management strategy.