Case Study: Large ME Travel Agency achieves 60% cancellation identification and improved conversions with Happiest Minds' Cancellation Risk Scoring Model

Customer scoring model to predict Cancellation Risk for Large ME Travel Agency

Happiest Minds partnered with a large Middle East travel agency that struggled to forecast individual and group ticket cancellations, which was causing revenue leakage and hampering demand planning. The agency needed a reliable way to identify customers likely to cancel so it could act proactively.

We built a customer scoring model using thorough data preparation, variable profiling and iterative logistic regression, validated with gains and lift analysis. The solution accurately identified high‑risk cancellations—capturing 60% of cancellations in the top three deciles—enabling targeted offers, improved demand forecasting and higher conversion by reducing cancellations.