Case Study: Attiki Gas Supply Company achieves accurate natural gas demand forecasts and cost savings with Ex Machina

Natural gas demand forecasting for the Attiki Gas Supply Company, utilizing advanced weather analytics

Attiki Gas Supply Company (EPAA) is the sole major gas supplier in the Attica basin, serving 330,000 households, 200 large commercial and industrial clients, 6,500 businesses and 1,200 schools and public buildings. Faced with a regulatory obligation to report daily natural gas capacity bookings to the National Natural Gas System (NNGS), EPAA needed highly accurate daily consumption estimates — derived from machine learning models and weather inputs — to avoid penalty fees for forecast deviations. Ex Machina was engaged to provide advanced weather analytics and the Ex Machina Weather service to support this forecasting challenge.

Ex Machina supplied historical and forecast weather data to feed EPAA’s production machine learning system, offering flexible delivery (API, web service, email), rapid adjustments, and custom pre-processing to validate and improve model performance. By integrating Ex Machina’s weather service into its forecasting workflow, EPAA improved estimate accuracy, reduced the risk of penalty fees and lowered operational costs — a collaboration in place since 2016 that has demonstrably saved the company money.

Attiki Gas Supply Company