Case Study: Austin Peay State University achieves 90%+ grade-prediction accuracy and improved student success with D2L Brightspace Degree Compass

Predicting academic performance with a personalized course recommendation system

Austin Peay State University (APSU), a growing public university of nearly 10,000 undergraduates, faced a retention challenge driven by a large share of first‑generation, non‑traditional, and Pell Grant students. University leaders identified course selection as a key barrier: students were overwhelmed by options and lacked reliable guidance on which courses they were likely to succeed in, undermining freshman‑to‑sophomore persistence and timely progress to degree.

APSU deployed Brightspace Degree Compass, a predictive, personalized course recommendation system that matches students’ academic profiles to courses where they’re most likely to perform well. The system has processed over 1,500 courses and ~150,000 predictions, forecasting letter grades with about 92% accuracy (within 0.4 of a grade) and showing that students in top‑rated courses earn A/Bs far more often; deployment corresponded with statistically significant gains in passing grades overall and for key subpopulations, helping keep students on track to graduate and prompting broader implementation across the state system.

Austin Peay State University

Tristan Denley

Austin Peay State University